Journal of Orthodontics & Endodontics

Internal Validation of Subjective Bayesian Model of The Occurrence of Alveolar Osteitis Cases, Generated by Expert in Kinshasa Hospital/DRC

Objective: To valid an Internal Model Subjective of Bayer by the case of alveolar osteitis generated by the Experts.

Methods: The qualitative method was carried out under form of integration group, with had eight experts. The selection criteria of experts were to be a professor at the faculty of Dental medicine, a master's degree in oral surgery, dentistry, periodontology, prosthesis and to be dental doctor with more than 20 years of occupation. Elaboration of SBM was carried out by three steps such as determination of a prior probability of quotient (APRIQ), determination of the likelihood ratio (LHR) and Determination of a posteriori probability quotient (APPQ. And SBM was validated in three stages: determination of the agreement degree of intra and inter experts; of Cut off point (COP) and Internal validation. The agreement degree of intra and inter expert was determined by kappa statistics.

Results: Seven risks factors such as F1=bad oral and dental hygiene, F2=Systemic diseases, F3=pre-existent infections, F4=Preoperative Infection, F5=lack of asepsis, F6=unexperienced practitioner and F7=post-operative infection was identified. A prior probability of quotient was 0.21. Likelihood ratio (LHR) of 7 independents factors are LHR=F1=3; F2=1.5; F3=4; F4=1.5; F5=1.3; F6=1.5 and F7=3 and LHR=F11=0.28; F2=0.25; F3=0.16; F4=0.4; F5=0.75; F6=0.33 and F7=0.14.

Conclusion: The Poor oral hygiene LHR3; post-operative infections LHR3, preoperative infections LHR4, were the most important identified factors predictive of occurrence of AO in our 8 dental hospital of D. R. Congo/Kinshasa city. The corrected of these three factors can contribute to reduce the frequency of that pathology in Kinshasa population.

Author(s):

Muyembi MP, Sekele JP, Kashiama B, Bobe P, Kalala EM, Nyimi Bushabu F, Dzaringa T, Tshilela M, Duan Feng F, Munyanga S and Mantshumba MA

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